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*** VIEW: "Westpac now expects two rate cuts....>

RBA
RBA: *** VIEW: "Westpac now expects two rate cuts next year from the RBA with
the cash rate cut to 0.25% in June 2020. Quantitative Easing is also expected to
begin in the second half of 2020. Westpac has not changed its rate call for the
RBA since July 24 this year. At that time we envisaged two more cuts from the
RBA in October 2019 and in February 2020. That would have seen the terminal cash
rate in this cycle at 0.5%. We expected that the final cut in February would
have been insufficient to provide the RBA with enough comfort that the economy
was moving into line with their growth; inflation; and unemployment targets.
Consequently, we expected that the RBA would have seen the need for
unconventional policies, largely centred around the purchase of Australian
government securities and clear forward guidance, to maintain the emphasis that
it was still easing policy. That emphasis was going to be important to maintain
downward pressure on the Australian dollar, in particular. Of course there was
always the option to push the cash rate even lower than 0.5% but we assessed
that the RBA would see the impact on confidence and inflationary expectations of
even lower rates to be counter-productive."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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