Vilnius Summit To Provide Clarity On Ukraine's NATO Membership Prospects

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has told reporters that he expect allies to send, "a clear and positive message on the path forward to membership for Ukraine," adding that "bilateral security assurances for Ukraine will compliment NATO Summit decision."

• NATO members are considering are two pathways to assure Ukraine's future security. Fast-tracked formal NATO membership, or the so-called Israel-style security framework, where the US and allies enhance Ukraine's defence capacity to deter future Russian aggression alone.
• Both of these options have clear downsides. The Israel option would be fiscally burdensome NATO members and does not come with guarantees of long-term US Congressional support. Ukraine's full NATO membership risks increased militarisation of Russia after the exposure of military shortcomings.
• The prospect of Ukraine NATO membership being expedited whilst the war is ongoing is highly unlikely. US officials and lawmakers have ruled out this option and it appear a non-starter based upon the principles of the NATO charter.
• The most likely outcome is the announcement of significant, long-term military support to Ukraine until a negotiated peace with Russia at which point a pathway to Ukraine's NATO membership will become viable.