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Vodafone (Baa2/BBB) Muted In Wake Of Three/Zegona News

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  • The UK Cabinet Office has cleared the proposed Vodafone-Three merger of national security concerns once they set up committees to supervise certain sensitive ops. The CMA probe is a separate process and remains the main focus.
  • Also noting BBG source reports that Zegona is near Spanish gov’t approval on the Vodafone Spain acquisition after making commitments on investment/leverage targets, having picked up pace in the wake of the recent Spanish political instability.
  • As stated before, we like the strategic refocusing that VOD is undertaking though it does threaten their top-class geographical diversification. The new capital policy does somewhat increase upside rating pressure though weak German performance and the MDU regulatory headwinds their limit the upgrade potential in our view and as mentioned earlier in the week we feel Telefonica has more momentum potential.
  • FY results come out on Tuesday; BBG consensus implies expectations of continued weakness with FY revenue -5% YoY, FY EBITDAal -13% YoY, FY OCF lower by ~30% YoY and FY FCF lower by over 50% YoY.



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