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Volatile Empire Mfg Survey Surges, Far Less So Six Months Out

US DATA
  • The Empire State mfg index was far stronger than expected in April as it bounced from -24.6 to +10.8 (cons -18.0).
  • It maintains its particularly volatile recent history, with a standard deviation of nearly 20pts since 2021, although the upside surprise does leave it at the highest since Jul’22.
  • The six-month ahead measure meanwhile saw a much smaller increase, up from +2.9 to +6.6 but remaining off the most recent high of +14.7 from Feb.
  • Mixed prices: Prices paid fell from 41.9 to 33.0 a joint low with January for the lowest since Nov’20, although prices received saw no further moderation, ticking up from 22.9 to 23.7

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