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Volatile MXN Overnight, President’s Day Holiday

MEXICO
  • Despite the local holiday in Mexico on Monday, the peso has continued its stretch of volatile trading with USDMXN recording an impressive 2.5% trading range since the open.
  • The pair rallied sharply higher last week, extending its recent recovery. Price breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and continues to test above the 19.00 handle, with fresh recent highs of 19.2322 on Monday.
  • The next key short-term resistance is at 19.2906, the Feb 6 high. A break would pave the way for strength towards the 19.50 handle and 19.5882, the Dec 30 high. 18.5054, the Feb 24 high, is the first support to watch.
  • The local data docket remains quiet to start the week, keeping global sentiment and the FOMC as the primary drivers. However, on Thursday we have January retail sales data as well as bi-weekly CPI which precedes economic activity data on Friday. The next Banxico decision falls on March 30.
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