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Volatile Session Amid US Data, Late Russian Missile Reports

FOREX
  • Currency markets traded in volatile fashion on Tuesday, with the greenback initially extending its most recent weakness before sharply reversing in late US trade.
  • Strength in equity markets was weighing on the greenback overnight with the USD index extending the most recent weakness following the US inflation data last week. A set of weaker producer price data from the US exacerbated this dollar weakness with the USD index extending its four-day decline to 5.1%.
  • Likely profit taking after moves appeared stretched on an intra-day basis prompted some moderation with the greenback edging higher throughout the US trading session. This greenback recovery, however, gained significant traction amid headlines that Russian missiles had strayed into Poland from Ukraine, potentially causing two deaths.
  • The greenback firmed across the board with EURUSD briefly trading back below 1.03 handle with a considerable turnaround from the post-PPI highs of 1.0479 earlier in the session. 1.0272/0163 Low Nov 14 / 11 are the immediate points of support before more significant support at 1.0094, High Oct 27.
  • As markets await details of the event and an emergency meeting in Poland, risk sentiment has stabilised and the USD has slipped back into negative territory approaching the APAC crossover.
  • Overall strength in equity markets continues to underpin the likes of AUD and NZD as well as Cable, that have all risen over 1% on Tuesday. Underpeforming on the day are the Swiss Franc and Chinese Yuan, remaining close to unchanged on the day.
  • Australian Wage Price Index will be published overnight before UK and Canadian CPI data on Wednesday. US retail sales report for October highlights the US data docket.
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