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Voluntary Cut Extension but Deeper OPEC Cuts Not Expected: Morgan Stanley


OPEC countries including Saudi Arabia may extend voluntary cuts to the end of Q224 but are not expected to further deepen the official reductions or new voluntary cuts at this stage, according to Morgan Stanley.

  • OPEC is expected to continue to restrain production supporting Brent in the mid $80s/bbl with oil inventories broadly stabilized at current levels.
  • Global demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.2mb/d in 2024 from 2.3mb/d. Increasing supply from non-OPEC countries is expected to meet this demand leaving “little room” for additional OPEC production.
  • OPEC output decisions “are especially critical now,”, with its market share eroded in recent years.
  • Non-OPEC growth is also projected to probably meet global demand growth in 2025 and 2026 based on the current project pipeline.

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