Voters Punish Erdogan’s AK Party For Poor Economic Performance

Municipal elections have been held across Turkey and aggregate results are showing a surprise defeat of President Erdogan’s AK Party with 35.9% of the vote while the opposition CHP is ahead on 37.3% after around 90% of votes counted. It is the worst result since they came to power. The opposition is ahead in 36 provinces up from 21 and is set to retain Ankara and Istanbul.

• Voters turned against the AKP due to the state of the economy (high inflation and rates) but support was also impacted by Islamists splitting from the party and fielding their own candidates, according to Bloomberg.
• Erdogan and his economic advisers said there won't be a major shift in economic policy but given the election result there is the risk that the minimum wage and pension payments will be increased in H2 2024.
• Erdogan said following the results “we have implemented our medium-term program with determination. We have stayed away from populist steps …”
• A general election is not due until 2028. Last year Erdogan received 52.2% of the vote in the Presidential run off. He is prepared to fight the opposition mayor of Istanbul Imamoglu, who is accused of insulting the Supreme Election Council which could stop him from retaining his position. He is seen as Erdogan’s challenger.