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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
INDIA
The first phase of regional elections get underway tomorrow in the states of West Bengal and Assam as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks a historic first win in India's fourth most-populous state, West Bengal.
- Elections in West Bengal (pop 91mn) will take place in eight phases, while those in Assam (pop. 30mn) will occur over three phases. Different electoral constituencies will vote on different days to allow for efficient ballot collection and counting, The last phase of voting in West Bengal takes place on 29 April, while Assam's election concludes on 6 April.
- In West Bengal, a historic stronghold for the Indian Communist Party (Marxist), and since 2011 for the anti-communist All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), the BJP is seeking to take charge of the regional gov't for the first time ever.
- West Bengal is an estimated 27% Muslim (the fourth-highest proportion in India) with a Muslim population of around 25mn (the second-largest in India behind Uttar Pradesh). Some policies enacted by the BJP at the federal level have come in for criticism both domestically and internationally for marginalising India's Muslim community, and the rise of the BJP in a region that prior to 2011 saw good relations between Hindus and Muslims (with the governing Communists secularising society) has caused some concern among the latter.
- Opinion polls show a tight race between the AITC and the BJP, with the AITC retaining a slim lead but some polls showing the likelihood of a hung parliament.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling for West Bengal State Election, %
Source: C-Voter, TV9 Bharatvarsh, CNX, Jan Ki Baat, MNI
- In Assam (with an even higher proportion of Muslims at an estimated 34%) the BJP looks set to retain power, with polls showing the BJP and its allies winning 65-73 seats compared to 50-60 for the centre-left Indian National Congress-led UPA (64 seats are required for a majority).
- With voting taking place over such a long time period, results will not be available until vote counting takes place on 2 May. Nevertheless, the conduct of the elections will be closely observed internationally to see if there are any outbreaks of violence or voter suppression, particularly in heavily Muslim populated areas.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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