MNI BRIEF: Canada PM Carney Derides Trump's 51st State Idea

MNI BRIEF: Carney Sworn In As PM, Names Champagne To Finance

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 14

MNI BRIEF: China February M2 Stays At 7% Y/Y

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW2: Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 199; OIL RIGS 139; GAS RIGS 60

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 592; OIL RIGS 487; GAS RIGS 100

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: DE, NL and FR Due Monday

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

NORWAY: Wage Committee Revises 2025 Inflation Estimate 0.2pp Higher to 2.7%

NORWAY
CEEMEABulletNorwayMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Income Settlements (TBU) revised its 2025 inflation estimate 0.2pp higher to 2.7% from the initial estimate provided in February. There was little net change in NOK crosses to the revision, with yesterday's CPI report still the main driver of recent hawkish Norges Bank repricing. The inflation estimate will nonetheless form a basis for this month's 2025 union wage negotiations.

  • Taken alongside the 1.8% wage overhang estimated in February, this suggests a rough 4.5% nominal anchor for wage negotiations.
  • The outcome of the negotiations will be an important input to Norges Bank's March MPR rate path, and the upward inflation estimate adds slight upside risks compared to the February vintage. The Q4 Regional Network survey, due March 20, will also contain updated wage expectations that will feed into the rate path calculation.
  • Norges Bank projected 2025 wage growth at 4.2% in the December MPR, while the Q4 Regional Network Survey had a 4.5% expectation.
  • TBU notes that "The upward adjustment is related to the fact that price increases in February were higher than expected, especially for food products. It is assumed that the increase in the twelve-month growth rate for the CPI is largely temporary. Apart from the changed quarterly pattern for electricity prices, the Committee has not made significant changes to the assumptions for the calculations."
218 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Income Settlements (TBU) revised its 2025 inflation estimate 0.2pp higher to 2.7% from the initial estimate provided in February. There was little net change in NOK crosses to the revision, with yesterday's CPI report still the main driver of recent hawkish Norges Bank repricing. The inflation estimate will nonetheless form a basis for this month's 2025 union wage negotiations.

  • Taken alongside the 1.8% wage overhang estimated in February, this suggests a rough 4.5% nominal anchor for wage negotiations.
  • The outcome of the negotiations will be an important input to Norges Bank's March MPR rate path, and the upward inflation estimate adds slight upside risks compared to the February vintage. The Q4 Regional Network survey, due March 20, will also contain updated wage expectations that will feed into the rate path calculation.
  • Norges Bank projected 2025 wage growth at 4.2% in the December MPR, while the Q4 Regional Network Survey had a 4.5% expectation.
  • TBU notes that "The upward adjustment is related to the fact that price increases in February were higher than expected, especially for food products. It is assumed that the increase in the twelve-month growth rate for the CPI is largely temporary. Apart from the changed quarterly pattern for electricity prices, the Committee has not made significant changes to the assumptions for the calculations."