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Wage Growth Still Resilient North Of 5% Y/Y

CANADA DATA
  • In contrast to softer jobs growth and a slightly higher unemployment rate, Canadian wage growth came in as expected. Hourly wages for permanent employees (the series shown on Bloomberg) only eased a tenth to 5.1% Y/Y in May after April’s surprising resilience at 5.2% Y/Y (had been expected to decline to 4.8%).
  • The BoC has put weight on the resilience of wage growth with its linkage to services inflation, and here other measures for all industry (5.1% from 5.2% Y/Y) and full-time positions (unch at 5.1% Y/Y) also showed only minor moderation at least in Y/Y terms.
  • Looking at other metrics, one of the few measures running at a softer pace is fixed weight hourly earnings from the lagged SEPH data.
  • Forward-looking surveys meanwhile have broadly plateaued at elevated rates of wage growth. They’ll next be updated with the June CFIB report on Jun 29 before the much more heavily weighted Q2 BOS on Jun 30.

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