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Waiting For A Winner

US TSYS SUMMARY
Sideways-to-lower trading for Treasuries overnight despite a bit of risk coming off the table (S&P eminis off 0.7%), with no particular headline catalysts in the European morning. Attention on payrolls data and, of course, the trickle of votes still coming through in key States.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 0.1508%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 0.3372%, 10-Yr is up 0.9bps at 0.7714%, and 30-Yr is up 1.2bps at 1.5357%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 0.5/32 at 138-27.5 (L: 138-26 / H: 139-01)
  • The presidential election continues to drag on, with developments overnight including Biden taking a ~1k lead in Georgia with a little under 10k ballots yet to count. Unclear whether we'll get anything decisive today from a 270 electoral vote standpoint, with Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada the other major states outstanding, though Biden is on a cycle high 95% prob on Betfair to win.
  • No reaction to yesterday's FOMC (we'll put out our review later today), with most attention on December's meeting.
  • Oct nonfarm payrolls is the most closely watched scheduled event of the day at 0830ET; MNI Dealer Median is +660k, BBG whisper is +657k.
  • Other releases: Wholesale Inventories (final) at 1000ET, Consumer Credit at 1500ET.
  • No supply today, but NY Fed back on operational purchase duty after a two-day hiatus, buying ~$12.825B of 0-2.25Yr Tsys.
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