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MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

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Waiting For Fri's March Jobs Data

US TSYS
FI markets traded higher by the closing bell, inside range on robust volumes (TYM2>1.5M). Yield curves gradually scaled back early steepening, mixed after the bell. After briefly inverting Tuesday, 5s30s hit +5.122 high and finished around 3.33 +3.28.
  • Aside from mixed geopol headlines re: Russia/Ukraine, KC Fed George generated some interest after midday after mentioning "FED BALANCE SHEET SIZE NEEDS TO DECLINE SIGNIFICANTLY ... while "ROLLING OFF FED ASSET HOLDINGS COULD HELP STEEPEN CURVE" Bbg.
  • George said it's clear that removing accommodation is required and laid out a more cautions stance on raising the federal funds rate, paired with a desire to roll assets off of the central bank's balance sheet faster.
  • "Given the state of the economy, with inflation at a 40-year high and the unemployment rate near record lows, moving expeditiously to a neutral stance of policy is appropriate," she said, characterizing recent inflation as a result of supply constraints in the face of strong demand.
  • Little/no react to March ADP +455 vs. +450 est, +6.9%. Thursday data focus on weekly claims (+196k est), Personal income/spending at 0830ET; Chicago PMI (57.0 vs. 56.3 prior) at 0945ET.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 4.4bps at 2.3204%, 5-Yr is down 5.8bps at 2.4399%, 10-Yr is down 4.6bps at 2.3488%, and 30-Yr is down 2.8bps at 2.4735%.
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