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Wall Street Pullback Does Little to Deter New USD/JPY Highs

FOREX
  • The greenback is mixed-to-higher in early Thursday trade, reflecting the more modest performance for European equities after the pullback on Wall Street into yesterday's close. The price action has done little to deter USD/JPY bulls, however, which continue to press the rate to new cycle highs, with 121.75 printed at the European open.
  • European PMI data came in generally better-than-forecast, with the details of most releases continuing to outline price and cost pressures for purchasing managers. The EUR saw some support on stronger German release, but the impact faded through the morning.
  • Both the Norwegian and Swiss central banks held relatively uneventful rate decisions, with the Norges Bank raising rates by 25bps and the SNB keeping rates unchanged - both alongside expectations. Nonetheless, both banks acknowledged the risks surrounding higher inflation in the near-term.
  • NOK markets watched the release of the new rate path projections from the Bank, with the terminal rate (now end-2025) at 2.31%, the path projects 4 rates hikes this year (inline with exp) and a further 4 hikes in 2023 (Q4 2023 path projection upped to 2.35% from 1.62% prior. This was broadly inline with expectations, and leaves Norges Bank set to raise rates at each quarterly monpol report meeting.
  • Focus turns to today's NATO summit, with a press conference due just ahead of the US cash equity open. Participants are set to discuss the Ukraine conflict, further sanctions pressure on Russia, and what possible red lines could be drawn against Russian activity in the country. Data highlights include weekly jobless claims and preliminary February durable goods. Fedspeak includes Kashkari, Waller, Bostic and Evans, but Evans should take the broader focus - he's the only FOMC member speaking today that hasn't already commented on policy.
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