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Watch Powell On 75BP Hike Potential And QT Discussion

FED

The modestly dovish knee-jerk reaction looks about right, inasmuch as the decision was right in line with expectations with none of the hawkish risks materializing (75bp hike obviously, but also on Statement fwd rate guidance and/or a few hawkish dissents, more aggressive QT).

  • Powell could come out a little more hawkish compared w the release though. Would be surprising for example if the words "expedient" and / or "front-loaded" re rate hikes don't come up, perhaps even in Powell's prepared statement.
  • The main point of interest for most in the press conference will be around whether they discussed today / whether they are open to a 75bp hike in future. Guaranteed, he has a well-prepared answer to that and it would be a big and unlikely surprise if he ruled it out.
  • Might interesting to hear his comments on QT deliberations/potential for future asset purchases though equally we might get something equivalent to "watching paint dry".
  • The 3-month Tsy $30B cap moving up to $60B in month 4 (30/30/30/60 = $150B) is a smaller amount of purchases on aggregate in the first 4 months than a linear month-by-month ramp-up (20/40/60/60 = $180B), but not a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.
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The modestly dovish knee-jerk reaction looks about right, inasmuch as the decision was right in line with expectations with none of the hawkish risks materializing (75bp hike obviously, but also on Statement fwd rate guidance and/or a few hawkish dissents, more aggressive QT).

  • Powell could come out a little more hawkish compared w the release though. Would be surprising for example if the words "expedient" and / or "front-loaded" re rate hikes don't come up, perhaps even in Powell's prepared statement.
  • The main point of interest for most in the press conference will be around whether they discussed today / whether they are open to a 75bp hike in future. Guaranteed, he has a well-prepared answer to that and it would be a big and unlikely surprise if he ruled it out.
  • Might interesting to hear his comments on QT deliberations/potential for future asset purchases though equally we might get something equivalent to "watching paint dry".
  • The 3-month Tsy $30B cap moving up to $60B in month 4 (30/30/30/60 = $150B) is a smaller amount of purchases on aggregate in the first 4 months than a linear month-by-month ramp-up (20/40/60/60 = $180B), but not a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.