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Watch Rhineland-Palatinate, Not NRW: Deutsche Bank

GERMAN DATA

In light of the Brandenburg / Berlin data's early release, we highlight a Deutsche Bank note that points to Rhineland-Palatinate CPI (last few released out between 0800-0830UK time Monday) proving to be a better guide to the national print than the North Rhine-Westphalia figure that is printed first thing Monday morning (due 0630UK).

  • They estimate that while the two states (NRW weighted at 21%, Rhineland at 5%) had fairly similar mean absolute errors in predicting the national print through 2022, but that started to diverge in Q4 2022.
  • In 2023 NRW has had a mean absolute error of 11bps for national headline CPI and 8bps for core, while R-P just 5bps for headline and 2bps for core.
  • A composite made up of 20% NRW and 80% Rhineland-Palatinate brings similar conclusions.
  • They thus suggest "caution in extending NRW prints to [the] later national CPI print[]".
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