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Weak CPI Adds Nearly A Full Cut To 2024 BoE Path; ECB Dovishness Extends

STIR

BoE rate cut pricing for 2024 extended by nearly a full 25bp reduction Wednesday, after the November UK CPI report showed much softer inflation pressures than expected.

  • The current implied BoE rate path shows 143bp of 2024 cuts implied - that's up from 121bp Tuesday. The first full implied cut has been moved up by one meeting to May, with two reductions now fully priced by June, three by August, four by September, and five by November - with nearly a sixth through December.
  • ECB cut pricing extended as well in sympathy with UK developments, but the move wasn't as extreme - 9bp more reductions now seen in 2024 vs Tuesday's pricing.
  • There's 164bp of 2024 reductions now seen, with the first full cut by April, two (and nearly three) through June, four through July, Five through September, five (and nearly 6) through October, and 6 and a half 25bp reductions through December.


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