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Weaker Ahead Boston Fed Collins, Housing Data

US TSYS
Tsys modestly weaker, lower half overnight range with bonds attempting rebound last couple hours. Light side of average volumes (TYZ2<290k) into lighter data and scheduled Fed speakers ahead the weekend.
  • Boston Fed Collins expected to speak at a Labor Market conference (text, no Q&A) at 0840ET - and again at 1000ET w/ CNBCs Steve Liesman.
  • Limited data after a heavy docket last couple days: Existing Home Sales (4.71M , 4.38M est vs. 4.71M prior) MoM (-7.1%) and Leading Index (-0.4%) at 1000ET.
  • No Tsy auctions or corporate bond issuance on the day limiting hedging flows, trading desks wary of adding risk ahead weekend and next week's Thanksgiving holiday.
  • STIR: Eurodollar/SOFR 2023 futures levels remain under pressure as Fed terminal rate climbs to 5.015% from 4.99% in Jun'23 late Thu (5.08% pre-CPI). Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 steady 50.9bp, Feb'23 cumulative +1.3bp to 87.7bps to 4.730%, Mar'23 cumulative 106.4bp to 4.918%.
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