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Weaker Ahead Of Powell And Biden Stimulus Plan

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries are weaker with a steeper curve, ahead of fiscal and monetary policy matters Thursday.

  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.147%, 5-Yr is up 1.5bps at 0.4836%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 1.1053%, and 30-Yr is up 2bps at 1.8359%.
  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 4/32 at 136-20.5 (L: 136-17 / H: 136-28), strong volumes once again (~370k as of 0630ET).
  • The main event of the day is set to be Pres-elect Biden unveiling a stimulus plan that CNN reported overnight would be "in the ballpark" of $2trn (a higher-than-anticipated figure that triggered the Tsy sell-off in Asia-Pac hours). Time expected ~1915ET.
  • Fed Chair Powell (1230ET) relegated to second fiddle, but still a key event a day after Gov Brainard attempted to dampen speculation that the FOMC was considering a taper anytime soon, vs VC Clarida seen by some as hawkish saying that the FOMC would not hike until inflation at 2% "for a year" (vs a more aggressive makeup strategy).
  • Other Fed speakers include Boston's Rosengren at 0900ET, Atlanta's Bostic at 1100ET, and Dallas' Kaplan at 1300ET (though we've already heard from each of them recently).
  • 0830ET sees weekly jobless claims and Dec export/import prices.
  • Supply consists of $65B of 4-/8-week bills at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$1.75B of 20-30Y Tsys.
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