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Weaker As Trading Resumes

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -4.5) are weaker after yesterday’s holiday.

  • US tsys finished the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning’s support. US markets were closed yesterday for New Year's Day, and trading will resume fully today.
  • The US 10Y yield closed near Tuesday’s session high at 4.57%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
  • Australia's S&P Global December Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 47.8 from 49.4 in November.
  • Australian house prices declined for the first time in 22 months in December as buyers increasingly found themselves priced out of the market, while the supply of properties increased. The Home Value Index for major cities slid 0.2% for its first fall since February 2023, property consultancy CoreLogic Inc. said Thursday. Melbourne and Sydney, the two biggest markets, led the declines with drops of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. (See link)
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-5bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing -1 to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (126%), with the chances of a February cut at 62%.
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ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -4.5) are weaker after yesterday’s holiday.

  • US tsys finished the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning’s support. US markets were closed yesterday for New Year's Day, and trading will resume fully today.
  • The US 10Y yield closed near Tuesday’s session high at 4.57%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
  • Australia's S&P Global December Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 47.8 from 49.4 in November.
  • Australian house prices declined for the first time in 22 months in December as buyers increasingly found themselves priced out of the market, while the supply of properties increased. The Home Value Index for major cities slid 0.2% for its first fall since February 2023, property consultancy CoreLogic Inc. said Thursday. Melbourne and Sydney, the two biggest markets, led the declines with drops of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. (See link)
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-5bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing -1 to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (126%), with the chances of a February cut at 62%.