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Weaker, But Off Cheaps

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs sit (YM -7.0 & XM -4.5) slightly off session bests but 5-6bp off cheaps. US Tsy yields are 1-2bp lower in Asia-Pac trade as Chinese data showed producer prices falling at their fastest pace since June 2020. ACGB nonetheless remain weaker versus the midnight Thursday close ahead of the extended Easter holiday as the local market plays catch-up to US Tsys’ reaction to the unexpected decline in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% on Friday.

  • Cash ACGBs are 4-6bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve 2bp flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential -7bp at -18bp.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bp higher with the 3s10s curve 1bp flatter and EFPs little changed.
  • Bills strip pricing is -5 to -9 with late whites the weakest.
  • RBA dated OIS is 6-8bp firmer for meetings beyond August. A 25% chance of a 25bp hike in May is priced with year-end easing expectations at 21bp versus 29bp ahead of the Easter holiday.
  • Tomorrow, RBA Deputy Governor Bullock will be taking part in the WEAI Monetary Panel ahead of March's Employment data on Thursday.
  • In anticipation of Wednesday's release of the US CPI and FOMC minutes for March's meeting, investors might opt to remain on the sidelines.
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