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Weaker Following Firmer-Than-Expected Core Inflation And GDP

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs briefly reached new intraday lows after the Eurozone April flash core inflation printed above consensus at 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior).

  • This morning’s weakness was initiated following the higher-than-expected French flash inflation data, with stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP prints from the four largest EZ economies also pressuring the space.
  • Those GDP figures helped Eurozone-wide GDP print above consensus at 0.3% Q/Q (vs 0.1% cons).
  • Bunds are -29 at 130.56, but remain comfortably within yesterday’s range. The technical trend cycle remains bearish.
  • 10-year periphery spreads to Bunds are a touch wider, with the hawkish inflation data reaction seemingly outweighing the positive growth readings.
  • We now await the ECB’s seasonally adjusted inflation data, to gauge core inflation momentum in April. However, general consensus is today’s data should still not stand in the way of the widely expected June ECB cut.
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