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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
November ifo investment expectations for the current year printed considerably lower (2.2 points vs 14.7 prior) compared to March (last publishing date) in data released this week.
- For planned 2024 investment, the balance stands at positive 1.2 points - where a value of 0 corresponds to the number of companies wanting to increase their investments being equal to the number of companies planning to decrease their investments.
- Ifo points out key factors as being "higher financing costs, weak demand, and uncertainty regarding economic policy".
- The trade sector is the most pessimistic, with expectations falling from 3.7 to -3.5 for 2023, and -14.6 for 2024. For services, investment expectations declined sharply from 13.6 to 1.0 points but stayed positive for 2023 and 2024, 2024 expectations at 2.3.
- The manufacturing sector plans to increase investment the most: the 2023 balance stands at 6.8 points. But that is down from 21.4, with the clearest decline against March seen in energy-intensive firms, particularly chemical production (13.9 to -15.6). For 2024, the expectations balance is 6.6 points in the manufacturing sector.
- Automotive manufacturers are planning large investment regardless of weak economic conditions, with a 2024 balance of 34.0 points.
- While business investment hasn't been strong in the past two years, it has positively contributed to GDP (0.1pp in each of the last 3 quarters) amid otherwise poor domestic demand. This Ifo survey correctly identified the flip from a drag in 2021 to more positive contributions in 2022-23, and as such bodes poorly for fixed investment growth in 2024.
ifo Business Survey
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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