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Weaker, Subdued NY Session Ahead of US CPI

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are modestly cheaper (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) after US Tsys close modestly weaker in NY trade. Tsy volumes were relatively light ahead of US CPI for March and the FOMC Minutes today. Economic data, IMF commentary and Fedspeak all failed to move the market materially. Philadelphia Fed President Harker crossed after the NY close noting that he is watching data to see if more action is needed on inflation.

  • Cash ACGBs open 3bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at -18bp.
  • Swap rates are 3-5bp higher with the 3s10s curve unchanged.
  • Bills pricing is -2 to -5 led by early reds.
  • RBA dated OIS is flat to 3bp firmer across meetings. A 23% chance of a 25bp hike in May is priced.
  • The local calendar highlight today will be RBA Deputy Governor Bullock's appearance on the WEAI Monetary Panel.
  • The market however is likely to remain focused on the release of US CPI (Mar) later today. US STIR has priced a 75% chance of a 25bp hike at the May FOMC. The BoC rates decision is also slated for today with a no-change outcome expected.
  • The AOFM is scheduled to sell A$800mn of the 3.25% 21 April 2029 bond today.
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