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Weaker Tsy Inside Narrow Range, Focus on Wednesday's CPI

US TSYS
  • Still weaker after the bell, Treasury futures are paring losses after the bell, Dec'23 10Y at 109-27 (-2.5) upper half of narrow 9bp range.
  • Little in the way of data today, rates drifted near the middle of the session range following the NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations release: 3.63% vs. 3.55% prior. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined a tenth to 2.8%. Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.3pp to 3.1%, its highest reading since July 2022. Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board in August.
  • Treasury futures dipped after $44B 3Y note auction (91282CHY0) tails: 4.660% high yield vs. 4.647% WI - the first tail since February 7 (4.073% vs. 4.035% WI).
  • Curves steeper but off early highs: 3M10Y +2.584 at -118.395, 2Y10Y +2.684 at -70.391. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend. An extension lower would signal scope for 109-09+, Aug 22 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.
  • Another slow day ahead, data doesn't pick up until Wednesday with the release of August CPI.
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