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Wedge Between Nominal And Real Retail Sales Should Fall In The Coming Months

ITALY DATA
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Italian real retail sales fell 0.3% M/M SA (vs -0.1% prior) in April, while nominal sales fell 0.1% M/M SA (vs a two tenths downwardly revised -0.2% prior).

  • On a 3m/3m basis, real sales fell 0.4% in April, now the 21st consecutive negative monthly reading for this series.
  • The wedge between the nominal and real sales indices grew to 12.1 points (vs 11.9 prior and a 2023 average of 10.9).
  • We would expect this wedge to stop widening in the coming months, with core HICP continuing to moderate and the strong labour market helping underpin household consumption.
  • ISTAT retail sentiment also remains above the long-run average, although it has fallen in the last two months to 102.8 (vs 104.5 in March).
  • Food sales again drove the weakness of the overall index in April, falling 0.7% (vs -0.8% prior). Non-food sales also fell 0.1% as in March.

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Italian real retail sales fell 0.3% M/M SA (vs -0.1% prior) in April, while nominal sales fell 0.1% M/M SA (vs a two tenths downwardly revised -0.2% prior).

  • On a 3m/3m basis, real sales fell 0.4% in April, now the 21st consecutive negative monthly reading for this series.
  • The wedge between the nominal and real sales indices grew to 12.1 points (vs 11.9 prior and a 2023 average of 10.9).
  • We would expect this wedge to stop widening in the coming months, with core HICP continuing to moderate and the strong labour market helping underpin household consumption.
  • ISTAT retail sentiment also remains above the long-run average, although it has fallen in the last two months to 102.8 (vs 104.5 in March).
  • Food sales again drove the weakness of the overall index in April, falling 0.7% (vs -0.8% prior). Non-food sales also fell 0.1% as in March.