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Wedge With US Yields Persists

JPY

Yen gained around 0.5% against the USD for Tuesday's session. Slightly above the median for the G10 bloc, and outperforming the CHF noticeably (down -0.47%). Still, for USD/JPY, we couldn't generate much downside beyond the 130.50 level, with the pair largely range bound post the Asia close. The pair currently tracks in the 130.85/90 range.

  • One factor which may have curbed downside momentum in the pair is the firmer US yield backdrop, with a noticeably gain in US cash Tsy 2yr yields for Tuesday's session (+13bps to 4.08%).
  • Still, the chart below shows a modest wedge is evident between USD/JPY and 2yr yield levels, with yen levels too strong. Again though, month end and fiscal year end could be aiding yen from a flow standpoint.
  • Broader USD sentiment also remained softer, which may have spilled over to the yen to some degree.
  • In the vol space, the 1 month edged down slightly, now to 11.84%, while the risk reversal recovered slightly higher to -1.49. The local data calendar is empty today.
Fig 1: USD/JPY Versus US 2yr Yield (Past Month)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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