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Wednesday saw Goldman Sachs note that "EM.....>

FOREX
FOREX: Wednesday saw Goldman Sachs note that "EM currencies have seen sharp
drawdowns since the start of the coronacrisis, especially among the commodity
producing LatAm & CEEMEA. With only a limited recovery since the retracement,
many of these scan as 'severely' undervalued (comparable to the GFC & trough
undervaluation levels). But whereas the risk premium in some of these
currencies, such as MXN & CLP, look attractive medium-term, risks still linger.
So for now we recommend EM FX longs on a relative basis (MXN vs COP) recognising
that funding MXN longs out of USD/EUR may be apt for investors willing to look
through short-run volatility. In CEEMEA, fundamental B/S considerations lead us
to prefer Russian local assets over Turkey, and we would look for some
indications of oil price stability to activate views there. Asian FX has
generally been more resilient, so the risk-reward for outright USD longs looks
better against the Asian complex, especially as a hedge against the re-emergence
of China-centric risks. Elsewhere in the region, we have stuck to relative value
expressions (e.g., KRW versus THB) reflecting the likelihood of an earlier
recovery in cyclical manufacturing relative to tourism and transport."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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