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MARKET TALK: Wednesday saw Mizuho note that "the euro is ascendant. No longer
the ugly duckling, no longer doomed to end in failure, this will become a
credible currency of stability and trust. The EU recovery fund will likely
precede a fiscal union in coming economic cycles. With this making fiscal
support something which can be applied asymmetrically to the EU, the Eurozone
will not be destined to lag in times of economic adversity. EU leaders may even
make material progress towards a banking union. European risk assets, and
corporates more broadly, will benefit from inward investment, a more stable
geopolitical outlook, and we expect to see the euro attracting significant
safe-haven flows in the coming quarters. Safe haven status cuts both ways. As a
safe haven, the euro will likely experience more disinflationary forces, with
the euro's macro beta eventually inverting, causing it to appreciate during
downturns. Thus, as investors buy euros, on this fundamental change in the
euro's status, the most effective investments should be those with fixed nominal
returns. The trade - buy EUR/USD, invest primarily in EUR credit, and buy
duration if there is a dip."