MNI BRIEF: Fed's Kugler Sees Renewed Progress On Inflation

MNI BRIEF: IMF Cuts Japan 2024 GDP View To +0.7% Vs. Apr 0.9%

CANADA JUNE CPI +2.7% YOY VS FORECAST +2.8%, PRIOR +2.9%

MNI BRIEF: All Options Open Next Meeting - BCB Deputy Galipolo

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 16

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY674 Bln Via OMO Tue; Rates Unchanged

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Greece, UK, Germany Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Portugal, EU Auction on Wednesday

MNI: US MAY BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.5%; SALES +0.0%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Week Ahead (1/2)

UK
  • The week ahead will see some important UK data releases but will also see UK markets vulnerable to spillover effects from external events. Ukraine tensions continue to linger (with the possibility of escalating at any time) while Fed-speak and US data was arguably the biggest driver of UK markets last week. Higher than expected US CPI followed by a very hawkish Bullard was then followed up by steady UK GDP data.
  • Following last week’s moves, there is now over 40bp of hikes priced in for March (we would still be surprised by a move larger than 25bp) with 78bp priced in by May (i.e. one 50bp and one 25bp hike fully priced). Two further 25bp hikes are priced by August and one further hike by year-end. This sees a further 150bp of hikes cumulatively priced, on top of the 25bp hike seen this month which would leave Bank Rate at 2.00% by year-end.
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