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Week Ahead (1/3)

UK
  • Following the emergence of a new Covid-19 Variant of Concern which has since been given the name Omicron late last week, any data on the spread of the variant, severity of symptoms and efficacy of vaccines will once again be at the top of the market's mind. On Friday the short sterling strip saw the Dec-21 contract move 3.0 ticks higher and most of the rest of the strip 10-11 ticks higher as markets priced in a level of concern that the Bank of England could potentially delay plans to raise rates in the face of greater uncertainty over the path of Covid-19. Smaller moves were seen in the Euribor strip while the Eurodollar strip saw larger moves.
  • Both the Euribor strip and Eurodollar strips have reversed around a third of the moves seen Friday at the time of writing, and we would expect to see some similar downward pressure on the short sterling strip on the open today. This follows some comments over the weekend that the variant has so far been linked to mild illness and reiteration from a number of health officials that we are not back to square one and that vaccines are still likely to protect against the most severe illness (even if their efficacy is lower than with the Delta strain).

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