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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • With that in mind we will hear from Broadbent today in a speech at Leeds University entitled “Outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy.” Broadbent is one of the swing members on the MPC, so he is likely to be needed to be on board to get a hike over the line. His comments will therefore be very closely watched today. In addition to the speech itself, there will be a Q&A. This is the last scheduled appearance from an MPC member ahead of the 16 December announcement.
  • The other key event for the UK this week will be the release of October activity data on Friday with monthly GDP and its components all due to be released. The Bloomberg median looks for a 0.4%M/M print, but there is a real spread of forecasts from 0.2%M/M to 0.7%M/M.
  • Next week’s labour market and inflation data will likely have more impact on the December MPC meeting, but a soft print in this week’s activity data could really push the market further towards pricing out the possibility of a December hike.
  • See the full MNI Gilt Week Ahead for gilt supply previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.
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