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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • With the next MPC meeting scheduled for next week, at the time of writing markets are pricing around 29bp (i.e. fully pricing a 25bp hike with about a 18% probability of a 50bp hike. 73bp is then priced by May (one 25bp and one 50bp hike almost fully priced) with 125bp priced by the November meeting (note there are six meetings between now and November). Cunliffe is due to give oral evidence on the UK-EU relationship in financial services to the Lords European Affairs Committee this afternoon, but is the only MPC member scheduled to make an appearance ahead of next week’s meeting. The week ahead will see monthly activity data for January (including monthly GDP) released on Friday, but absent huge surprises this is unlikely to change the MPC’s thinking or illicit a market reaction.
  • Note that this week will see the first passive reduction in the BoE’s balance sheet since QE began in 2009 with the redemption of the 4.00% Mar-22 gilt (which was also launched in 2009). The BOE holds GBP25.1bln nominal of the gilt (GBP27.9bln in purchase terms). We expect little market reaction, given how well telegraphed the move has been.
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