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Week Ahead (2/2)

UK
  • In terms of this week’s data the highlights will be labour market data on Tuesday and inflation data on Wednesday. Both of these could be hugely important ahead of the December MPC meeting (although note that we will receive one more print of both of these data releases in the week of the decision).
  • Markets currently price 61bp for the December meeting, around a 45% probability of another 75bp hike and 55% probability of a 50bp hike. These data could help to give a clearer steer towards either of these outcomes. On Friday we will receive consumer confidence and retail sales data.
  • In terms of MPC appearances, Wednesday will see Bailey, Broadbent, Mann and Dhingra testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee (beginning at 14:15GMT). Although they will be primarily discussing the November MPR, the fact that the appearance comes after the labour market and CPI data will be the event extra focus.
  • On Thursday, Pill will appear in a Bristol Festival of Economics event with the topic “What Next for Central Banks” while Tenreyro will give a speech in Argentina in Spanish. Both Pill and Tenreyro have already spoken following the MPC meeting – so its unlikely we will hear too much new from them.
  • On Friday Haskel will deliver introductory remarks at a conference with the theme “Macroeconomics in a time of pandemic and war.”
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