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Week Ahead (2/3)

UK
  • Against this backdrop, the rise of Covid-19 cases has remained roughly the same in absolute terms as last week, with over 30,000 daily cases now recorded, but the percentage change has fallen to 27.3%. Hospital data has deteriorated, however, with the number of daily admissions up over 50% compared to the prior week. First doses of vaccinations have also fallen substantially over the past week, with the 7-day average at the lowest this year (outside of the period around the 4-day Easter bank holiday when supply was also constrained). The Sunday Times reported that the government is likely to recommend that the gap between the first and second doses of the vaccine be cut from 8-weeks to 4-weeks. There are no supply issues and two doses are shown to be much more effective against the Delta variant than one dose.
  • The weekend media report that the government is still going to go ahead with all the announced changes to restrictions, but that public support has been dropping somewhat (although not disastrously so for the government). The Observer reported that 50% of people were in favour of the relaxation of restrictions but 73% of people thought people should still have to wear masks on public transport. Interestingly, only 10% in the poll thought that restrictions should have been lifted earlier. Johnson is likely to say that cases will rise (potentially citing the 100,000 per day number reported in the press), and will state that hospitalisations will also rise, but that the NHS will cope.
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