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Week Ahead (2/3)

UK
  • The upcoming week will be huge for UK data. We will see labour market data on Tuesday, then on Wednesday we will receive CPI/RPI/PPI data for June, public finance data on Thursday and Friday will see GfK consumer confidence, retail sales and flash PMI data all due for release.
  • The most notable of these releases will be inflation data which is expected to increase from the May release of 9.1%Y/Y with the Bloomberg median at 9.3%Y/Y (with some downside risks). However, core CPI is expected to slip back slightly from 5.9%Y/Y to 5.8%Y/Y according to consensus (with more balanced risks). If consensus forecasts are realised, we would see headline CPI move to a new cycle high but the second consecutive fall in core CPI.
  • Labour market data continues to be closely watched, particularly wage data, with the proportion of passthrough from higher inflation to higher wage growth still highly uncertain.
  • Retail sales ex-fuel data has only seen one positive M/M print since October 2021’s print and this trend is expected to continue with the June print.
  • Consensus looks for further consolidation in the PMI data – the manufacturing print is expected to be 52.0 (which would be the lowest print since June 2020) while the services print is expected at 53.1 (the weakest since February 2021).
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