March 25, 2024 11:08 GMT
Week Ahead
UK
- Looking at the upcoming week, there is only one MPC member scheduled to make a public appearance. Catherine Mann will appear at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference (it is unclear whether as an outright speaker or as a panellist). Previously she had described her February decision to continue to vote for a hike as “finely balanced” but had given little other indication that she would change her vote at the March MPC meeting. She has, however, sounded very far from cutting rates in her appearances since February, so we will wait to see if she discusses monetary policy today and whether she addresses her vote change at last week’s meeting. There is no text expected to be released.
- On the data front this week’s calendar is relatively light with CBI distributive trades due today and the final print of Q4-23 GDP due Thursday morning (with little in the way of revision expected). We don’t expect either to really be market moving.
- Today will see the last GBP650mln long-dated APF operation (before the size reduction next quarter) with the final auction of the short 5-year (closer to 4-year now!) 4.50% Jun-28 gilt due tomorrow.
- Note that following the large takeup at the linker syndication, the DMO is on track to overfund in the gilt market for FY23/24 by GBP1.8bln (which could increase to around GBP2.5bln if the full PAOF is taken up this week). The DMO will take this overfunding into account when it revises its remit following the outturn of the public finance data for the fiscal year (which is due for release on 23 April).
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