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Week Ahead In Asia/Pacific

     Chinese Data
     Thursday, 10 am CST (0200 GMT): The National Bureau of Statistics is due to
release Economic activity data for August. Most data are expected to improve
modestly after the stronger-than-expected result in July.  Industrial production
is seen accelerating to 6.6% y/y after 6.4% in July, while retail sales growth
is seen rising to 10.5% y/y from 10.4%. January-August Fixed-asset investment,
however, is expected to slow to 8.2% y/y from 8.3% in January-July.  
     Sometime between Monday and Friday, data/time uncertain: The People's Bank
of China is due to release monetary and credit aggregates for August.  M2 money
supply growth is expected to slow to a new record low rate of 9.1% y/y from 9.2%
in July. New bank lending is expected to rebound to CNY950 billion in August
from CNY8.26 billion the month before.  Total social financing, a broader
measure of credit in the economy, is seen rising modestly to CNY1.30 trillion in
August from July's CNY1.22 trillion. 
     Reserve Bank of Australia
     Thursday, 0915 AEST (2315 GMT Wednesday): Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Guy
Debelle at an event in Sydney. There will also be Q&A. 
     Australian Data
     Tuesday, 0930 AEST (2350 GMT Monday): ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer
confidence data for the week ending Sep. 10.
     Tuesday, 1130 AEST (0330 GMT): National Australia Bank publishes its August
monthly business survey. Both conditions and confidence are expected to remain
at elevated levels. More focus will be on whether the survey shows any narrowing
in the gap between the business and household sectors, that have been the
highlight of recent surveys. 
     Wednesday, 1030 AEST (0230 GMT): Westpac-MI publishes its consumer
sentiment survey for September. The August survey showed sentiment below 100 for
the ninth month in a row and this is expected to continue in September. 
     Thursday, 1100 AEST (0300 GMT): Melbourne Institute publishes its inflation
expectations survey for September. 
     Thursday, 1130 AEST (0330 GMT): The Australian Bureau of Statistics is due
to publish its Labor Force Survey for August. The MNI median forecast is for the
employment to rise by 15,000 m/m and keep the jobless rate unchanged at 5.6% and
the participation rate steady at 65.1%. 
     Reserve Bank of New Zealand
     No major events this week 
     New Zealand Data 
     It's a quiet week with just one tier one release of interest to the market:
     Monday, 1045 NZT (2245 GMT Sunday): The New Zealand Bureau of Statistics is
due to release Electronic Card Transactions data for August. The July data
showed a 0.7% fall in transactions.  
     Bank of Japan
     The Bank of Japan board will hold its next policy meeting on Sept. 20-21.
No change in the yield curve control target is expected. The focus is on the
Oct. 30-31, when the board updates its medium-term growth and inflation
projections as well as risk analysis. There are no public speeches by BOJ board
members until Sept. 25, when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks to business leaders
in Osaka City, western Japan.
     Japanese Data
     Monday, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Cabinet Office releases July
machinery orders. The median forecast: core private-sector orders, which exclude
volatile orders for power generation equipment and ships, +4.8% on month, which
would be the first rise in four months following -1.9% in June (the forecast
range: +2.6% to +7.0%).
     Wednesday, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Tuesday): The BOJ releases the August
corporate goods price index (CGPI). The median forecast: domestic producer
prices +3.0% on year, which would be the eighth straight y/y rise vs. +2.6% in
July; +0.1% on month, which would be the second consecutive m/m gain vs. +0.3%
in July.
     Japanese Government Bonds
     Japanese government bond yields may rebound after last week's drop caused
by the appreciation of the yen if the yen's rise is corrected. But a sharp rise
in bond yields is unlikely in the face of continued tight supply-demand
conditions and safe-haven demand amid the risk of North Korean missile attacks.
A further drop in JGB yields would prompt the BOJ to reduce the scale of its
bond purchases aimed at keeping the yield curve that is consistent with the
short-term interest rate of -0.1% and the 10-year JGB yield of around zero
     Tuesday is the last trading day for September bond futures and the
benchmark status is likely to shift to December on Tuesday morning.
     JGBs are supported by the BOJ's outright bond purchase operations, which
are expected Wednesday and Friday. The BOJ is expected to offer to buy JGBs with
a remaining life of 1 to 3 years, 3 to 5 years and 5 to 10 years on Wednesday,
and of those with 1 to 3 years, 3 to 5 years, 10 to 25 years and more than 25
years on Friday.
     The 10-year JGB yield is seen moving between -0.005% and 0.025% this week
against the bank's target of around zero. It fell to -0.010% Friday for the
lowest level since Nov. 15, 2016. The Ministry of Finance will auction Y2.2
trillion of 5-year bonds Tuesday, Y1.0 trillion of 20-year bonds and Y4.4
trillion of three-month Treasury discount bills Thursday and Y2.3 trillion of
1-year Treasury discount bills Friday.
--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:

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