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HYBRIDS: Week in Review

HYBRIDS
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  • SES had a massive rebound with the SESGFP 2.875 Call26 +12pts off the lows of Monday 13th. The company announced that it had bought back and retired €100m of this ISIN. SES has a sufficiently strong backlog of €5bn – marked conservatively at the termination value – and has renewed a number of contracts recently that short-term fears were overdone. LEO risk from Starlink is clearly a worry for the sector in the long-term though the company seems confident that not every application can be replaced with Low-Earth satellites.  Eutelsat was cut from Ba3 to B2 on the 21st as a reminder of sector risk.
  • ORSTED took three impairment charges worth DKK 12.1bn in total or 4% of total assets. Fitch and S&P followed with Negative outlooks though arebase case is that neither will cut as the company will enact remedies. Perps were up to 2.8pts lower for ORSTED 5.125 Call29, with a small rebound on Friday.
  • Bayer senior bonds were 7bps tighter this week; the perps are 20 tighter. 2025 is meant to be a turn-around year for Bayer with the company hoping to reduce leverage by 0.5x as it seeks an ultimate return to Single A.  New product launches in pharma and improved efficiencies being the drivers. Crop Science had a poor Q3 and we are concerned by reading about the inroads competitor Corteva is making Seeds but if the company has some good news on the legal front then we could see a significant repricing of the Sub_Senior spread of around 50bps. 
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  • SES had a massive rebound with the SESGFP 2.875 Call26 +12pts off the lows of Monday 13th. The company announced that it had bought back and retired €100m of this ISIN. SES has a sufficiently strong backlog of €5bn – marked conservatively at the termination value – and has renewed a number of contracts recently that short-term fears were overdone. LEO risk from Starlink is clearly a worry for the sector in the long-term though the company seems confident that not every application can be replaced with Low-Earth satellites.  Eutelsat was cut from Ba3 to B2 on the 21st as a reminder of sector risk.
  • ORSTED took three impairment charges worth DKK 12.1bn in total or 4% of total assets. Fitch and S&P followed with Negative outlooks though arebase case is that neither will cut as the company will enact remedies. Perps were up to 2.8pts lower for ORSTED 5.125 Call29, with a small rebound on Friday.
  • Bayer senior bonds were 7bps tighter this week; the perps are 20 tighter. 2025 is meant to be a turn-around year for Bayer with the company hoping to reduce leverage by 0.5x as it seeks an ultimate return to Single A.  New product launches in pharma and improved efficiencies being the drivers. Crop Science had a poor Q3 and we are concerned by reading about the inroads competitor Corteva is making Seeds but if the company has some good news on the legal front then we could see a significant repricing of the Sub_Senior spread of around 50bps.