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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Week in Review; Avis (B1/BB-; S); €30s -€2/+55bps (YTW), Equities -6.3%
* Avis came to primary upsizing its 5NC2 from €400m to €600m and pricing at bottom range of IPT (7%) . It only marked net €250m of supply with proceeds to pay down the the €350m 26's (excess can be used for further debt repayments) - still the 7.25% 30's (pricing to par call in '28) have struggled through the week. Since earnings 2-weeks ago its cheapened +70 on spread (in line with $29/31's moves), now at €101.5/6.96%/Z+404 - we think downside risks (which led us to flag the Avis lines as "not cheap" post-earnings) are now priced in.
* Moody's & S&P came and affirmed it at B1/BB- on Wednesday. Moody's noted higher depreciation costs & lower RPD ahead (key themes of Q4 earnings) & somewhat reassuringly expected leverage to move & "remain" in FY24 around its ceiling (4*)- focus seems to be in Utilisation rate (>70%) and in fleet management alongside collateral requirements in vehicle programs - this weeks mgmt call seemed to emphasise working on the former in Q1/2 & downplayed the latter as a issue.
* S&P also downplayed weak earnings as expected & saw Q4 conditions to "continue" with credit ratings appropriately reflecting this. We think the €30's could be a attractive for investors looking for BB/B exposure but caution seasonal weaker quarters (ahead of summer) still to come.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.