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Week in Review; Avis (B1/BB-; S); €30s -€2/+55bps (YTW), Equities -6.3%

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

* Avis came to primary upsizing its 5NC2 from €400m to €600m and pricing at bottom range of IPT (7%) . It only marked net €250m of supply with proceeds to pay down the the €350m 26's (excess can be used for further debt repayments) - still the 7.25% 30's (pricing to par call in '28) have struggled through the week. Since earnings 2-weeks ago its cheapened +70 on spread (in line with $29/31's moves), now at €101.5/6.96%/Z+404 - we think downside risks (which led us to flag the Avis lines as "not cheap" post-earnings) are now priced in.

* Moody's & S&P came and affirmed it at B1/BB- on Wednesday. Moody's noted higher depreciation costs & lower RPD ahead (key themes of Q4 earnings) & somewhat reassuringly expected leverage to move & "remain" in FY24 around its ceiling (4*)- focus seems to be in Utilisation rate (>70%) and in fleet management alongside collateral requirements in vehicle programs - this weeks mgmt call seemed to emphasise working on the former in Q1/2 & downplayed the latter as a issue.

* S&P also downplayed weak earnings as expected & saw Q4 conditions to "continue" with credit ratings appropriately reflecting this. We think the €30's could be a attractive for investors looking for BB/B exposure but caution seasonal weaker quarters (ahead of summer) still to come.

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