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Week Opener Focus on January CPI

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures see-sawed higher in a narrow range Monday, modest volumes (TYH4 appr 920k by the close) with much of Asia/Pac closed for Lunar New Year holidays. Main focus for the week is tomorrow morning's January CPI and Retail Sales on Thursday.
  • Inflation expectations in January remained unchanged at the short- and longer-term horizons and declined slightly at the medium-term horizon , according to a New York Fed's survey of consumers, while consumers were more optimistic about their financial situation.
  • Median year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.00%, while the five-year-ahead measure was unchanged at 2.54%. The three-year-ahead measure decreased 0.2ppt to 2.35%, the lowest since the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations started in 2013.
  • Decent corporate bond issuance resumed, just over $17B generated decent two way hedging/unwind flows.
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