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Week Opener: Risk-On

US TSYS

Rates trading weaker after the bell, near session lows -- long end underperforming after ECB Vasle headline that "negative rates may end by year end." Tsy 30YY hit 2.4882 high. Yield curves steeper but still inverted: 2s10s climbing +7.314 to -.717 while 5s30s climbed 3.499 to -14.188.

  • Contributing Blocks: sales in 2s and 5s prior to ECB Vasle headline. Large 2s/ultra-Bond steepener late: +19,730 TUM2 105-22.62 vs. -2,484 WNM2 176-19.
  • Stocks continued to extend session highs in late FI trade, SPX eminis back to late Thursday range amid ongoing focus on tech shares and micro bloggers.
  • No react to data: Rates holding near lows after Feb factory orders -0.5, ex-trans +0.4, while equities holding decent gains (ESM2 +16.75 4556.0).
  • On tap Tuesday:
    • 0830 Trade Balance (-$89.7B, -$88.5B)
    • 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (58.9, 58.9); Comp PMI (58.5, 58.5)
    • 1000 ISM Services Index (56.5, 58.5)
    • 1005 Fed Gov Brainard virtual forum on inflation, text, Q&A
    • 1230 SF Fed Daly on US economy, text, Q&A TBA
    • 1400 NY Fed Williams virtual discussion on health & economy
  • By the close, the 2-Yr yield is down 3bps at 2.4262%, 5-Yr is unchanged at 2.5587%, 10-Yr is up 3.1bps at 2.4135%, and 30-Yr is up 4.3bps at 2.4751%.

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