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Wells Fargo: Omicron Deals Fed A Wild Card

FED

Wells Fargo expects the FOMC to accelerate the pace of tapering at the December meeting – to $22.5B from $15.0B monthly starting in January.

  • SEP/Dot Plot: “Would not surprise us” to see in the Dot Plot: 2 2022 hikes, 3 in each of 2023 and 2024, bringing end-2024 Funds target to 2.00-2.25%. “That is above current market pricing and could feel to some at the party that the punchbowl is being removed.”
  • Median core PCE projection for Q4 2022 plausibly in 2.4-2.7% range.
  • Future action: Taper to conclude in mid-April. But acceleration in December “not a sure bet”, esp if Omicron appears to be a bigger threat then currently envisaged (note: their preview was published Dec 7).

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