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Wells Fargo: 3Q Consumption To Be Solid, But Warning Signs

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Wells Fargo writes of today's disappointing July retail sales data that "as the July and August data trickle in, there is less green, more yellow and some lights flashing amber warning signs" for private consumption.

  • They cite higher COVID case numbers and uncertainty in consumer confidence indices, and note the "absence of economic impact payments are no longer the boost that they used to be, and in September the additional unemployment benefits will go away".
  • While they see headwinds to August consumption, it's not all negative for the quarter as a whole: they still see real PCE rising 7.3% in 3Q led by services (from 11.8 in 2Q)
  • Despite rising inflation, they see it as "having been largely concentrated in goods rather than services, [so] price gains shouldn't completely inhibit the continued transition back to services spending."


Source: Wells Fargo

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