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Wells Fargo Warn On Wider Range Of Potential Payrolls Outcomes

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Wells Fargo estimate nonfarm payrolls growth of 155k in January on Friday, comfortably below consensus of 185k and a primary dealer median of 205k.
  • “On net, fewer industries are adding headcounts each month and job openings and hiring plans continue to pull back. Furthermore, initial jobless claims remain low, but continuing claims have edged up, which is an indication that displaced workers are having a more challenging time finding new work.”
  • “The range of outcomes for the January Employment report will be wider than is typical. New seasonal factors will be introduced in the Establishment Survey in addition to the annual benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls”. The preliminary estimates suggesting employment was 306k lower in Mar’23 indicates “somewhat weaker momentum in hiring at the start of last year.”
  • They also see the u/e rate ticking up to 3.8% and AHE increasing 0.3% M/M.
  • “January data in the Household Survey will incorporate the annual adjustment to population controls. […] Monthly changes in the unemployment and labor force participation rates are to be less affected, but the adjustments can result in unusually large monthly swings in these ratios as well.”
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