Westpac Bring Forward RBA Rate-Hike Call, Australian Jobs Data Take Focus

Firmer commodity complex generated a tailwind for AUD/USD on Wednesday, but the rate trimmed gains into the close. It blipped higher as trading resumed in the Asia-Pacific, with Westpac tweaking their RBA call. AUD/USD last changes hands at $0.7219, up 8 pips on the day.

• Westpac's Bill Evans said that he now expects the RBA to start raising the cash rate in August with a 15bp hike, to be followed by a 25bp hike in October. Evans had previously pencilled in the first cash rate hike for February 2023.
• Australia's consumer inflation expectations and labour market data, both due shortly, will provide fresh inputs to the debate on RBA policy outlook. Consensus looks for a 0.1pp downtick in headline unemployment rate, according to BBG survey of analysts.
• From a technical perspective, a clearance of yesterday's high of $0.7238 would give bulls a green light for targeting Jan 13 of $0.7314. Meanwhile, it was Jan 13 when the rate charted an evening star pattern, a strong bearish reversal signal. As the bearish threat continues to linger, downside focus falls on Jan 11 low of $0.7155, followed by Jan 7 low of $0.7130.