Westpac In Line With Consensus On Headline Jobs, Expect Unemp. To Fall

Westpac look for a 25k rise in headline employment, but note that “August employment was 8k below the June level. Weekly Payrolls point to a very mild bounce, and while there is likely to be some upward revision, it suggests we can’t be confident in a strong bounce.”

• “Job ads and job vacancies have started to soften, from a high level, while our business surveys Job Indicator has levelled out. Unemployment expectations did ease in September, but they jumped 11% in October pointing to weakness in the labour market through September.”
• “The larger than usual number of people not working due to illness does not just effect employment and hours worked but it also has an impact on the availability of labour, and hence, the labour force. As ongoing illnesses are likely to be a factor behind the soft September Weekly Payrolls update, we expect it to have an impact on the labour force as well. We expect the labour force to lift just 17k holding the participation rate flat at 66.6% while the unemployment rate will round down to 3.4% from a rounded up 3.5%.”