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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The Westpac leading index fell 0.03% m/m in October after rising 0.06%. The 6-month annualised rate was steady at -0.4%, signalling that growth is likely to remain below trend but still positive heading towards mid-2024, which is consistent with the RBA’s November forecasts. The measure tends to lead detrended growth by 3 to 9 months.
- Westpac estimates that currently trend growth is above 3% given that the population is rising at about 2.4% y/y.
- There has been some improvement in the 6-month rate since its May trough driven by the widening yield spread, steady dwelling approvals and some recent rises in AUD commodity prices. But hours worked and ASX equities have weighed on the index.
- Westpac notes that while growth looks likely to stay lacklustre, the RBA is concerned whether it is soft enough to bring inflation back to target by end 2025. So, it sees the 2024 meetings as “very much live”.
- See Westpac’s report here.
Australia Westpac leading index vs GDP y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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