Westpac Look For Slightly Firmer Than Consensus Labour Market Report

Ahead of today’s labour market report Westpac note that “after two consecutive monthly declines employment bounced in February, more than offsetting the prior falls. These results were largely attributed to seasonalities – a surge in illness and a lift in unemployed persons with a job lined up in the future – the onset and fading of which resulted in the falls and gains in employment over the last three months.”

• “Looking through recent volatility however, an underlying softening trend is beginning to emerge. Over the last six months, employment growth has exhibited a clear slowdown – three-month average monthly gains of +37k in November now down to +17k at February – and it looks to be broadly-based by industry.”
• “For March, we have pencilled in +25k rise in employment, though recent payrolls data is pointing to some upside risk. More broadly, given the fading of earlier seasonalities, this update will provide a clearer indication of underlying employment dynamics and the expected path for employment outcomes over the near-term.”
• “Holding participation flat at 66.6%, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at 3.5% in March.”