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Free AccessWestpac note that "the AUD is closing in.....>
AUSSIE: Westpac note that "the AUD is closing in on our mid '19 forecast of
$0.70 at a much faster pace than we had envisaged. Recall that the key arguments
we have used throughout '18 to signal a significant fall in AUD from its peak in
Jan '18 of $0.81. Fears of a global trade war & general contagion through
emerging markets seem to be dictating this current development. We would argue
that these two factors will prove to be largely transient in terms of
implications for the AUD. Accordingly we are slightly lowering our end '18
forecast from $0.73 to $0.72 & exp. the final adjustment in the profile to $0.70
to play out through H119. However we are not sharply lowering our target low
point in AUD - at this stage recent movements look to be an overreaction to
fears that will not be franked. In that regard we point to the outperformance of
Australia's basket of commodity export prices. Export prices are running well
ahead of the normal relationship with the AUD. That is, on the basis of the
export price basket, the Australian dollar looks under-valued. On the other hand
there is a looser relationship between the AUD/USD and the AU/US interest rate
differential."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.